Idea 17of 22Builds onSmall experiments wander
The spinner has no memory
After five blues in a row, is orange more likely next?
Today you'll discover
- what the spinner knows
- the chance on the next spin
- why orange is never due
Think firstBlue came up 5 times in a row
Blue came up 5 times in a row. What is the chance of orange on the next spin?
Decide first, then press Next. Ask: has the spinner itself changed?
A row of five boxes, each marked B for blue, then a box with a question mark. Then a half-orange, half-blue spinner with the words the same spinner, and next spin: orange 1/2, blue 1/2. Then the question mark turns into another B. The last step shows a fair coin after 4 heads.
See the whole ideathe big idea and the key word, in one place
The big idea
Each spin is independent: what came before does not change the chance of what comes next.
“It's due”After a run of blues, it feels as if orange must come next. It is still 1/2: the spinner has not changed.
For exampleA number cube that has not rolled a 6 for ten rolls still has a 1/6 chance of a 6 on the next roll.
Key word
- independent
- not changed by what happened before; each spin is independent of the others
Ready to use it?
- Find the chance of the next result after a streak.